daily prop · New York, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Tue Oct 20

New York runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 20

2¢

american +6111 · decimal 62.11

on the tape

74°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 74°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		18¢
aifs		16¢
hres		6¢
icon		5¢
eps		2¢
nbm		1¢
ndfd		1¢
hrrr		1¢
rrfs		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F4¢

64–65°F15¢

66–67°F28¢

68–69°F29¢

70–71°F16¢

72–73°F5¢

74–75°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape