KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 10.0¢Risks 4.98u

EPSNO 90.0¢Risks 45.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.02u · EPS −45.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00	21.7%	2.1%	25.1%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	21.7%	2.1%	25.1%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	21.7%	2.1%	25.1%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	21.7%	2.1%	25.1%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	21.7%	2.1%	25.1%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	21.7%	0.6%	29.3%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	21.7%	0.6%	29.3%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	21.7%	0.6%	29.3%	18.4%	26.2%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	29.4%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	29.4%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	29.4%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	29.4%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	26.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	25.5%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	49.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	25.5%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	49.6%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	25.5%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	49.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	25.5%	0.6%	26.7%	18.4%	49.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	25.5%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	25.5%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	25.5%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	12.4%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	49.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	32.2%	19.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T10:32:01+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	32.2%	11.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	19.8%	11.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	19.8%	11.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	19.8%	11.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	10.3%	0.4%	19.8%	11.7%	52.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	11.0%	0.4%	20.1%	11.8%	52.8%
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	11.0%	0.4%	20.1%	11.8%	52.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	11.0%	0.4%	20.1%	11.8%	52.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	11.0%	0.4%	20.1%	11.8%	52.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	11.0%	0.4%	11.1%	11.8%	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	11.0%	0.4%	11.1%	11.8%	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	11.0%	0.4%	11.1%	11.8%	52.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	11.1%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	11.1%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	11.1%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	11.1%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	11.1%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	13.3%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	27.4%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	27.4%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	27.4%	14.4%	49.4%
2026-10-15T07:48:48+00:00	10.6%	0.4%	27.4%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	10.6%	0.4%	27.4%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	10.6%	0.4%	27.4%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	10.6%	0.4%	27.4%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	10.6%	0.4%	27.4%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	10.6%	0.4%	22.5%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	22.5%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00	10.6%	1.6%	22.5%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	19.3%	1.6%	22.5%	13.4%	29.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	19.3%	1.6%	22.5%	13.4%	30.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	19.3%	1.7%	22.5%	13.4%	30.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:52+00:00	19.3%	1.7%	22.5%	13.4%	30.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	19.3%	1.7%	30.5%	13.4%	30.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	19.3%	1.7%	30.5%	13.4%	30.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	19.3%	1.7%	30.5%	13.4%	30.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	19.3%	1.7%	30.5%	13.4%	30.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	9.5%	1.7%	30.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	9.5%	1.7%	30.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	9.5%	1.7%	30.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	9.5%	1.7%	30.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	9.5%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	9.5%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	9.5%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	21.1%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	13.4%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	41.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	16.5%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	16.7%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	16.7%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	16.7%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	16.7%	14.2%	18.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	13.7%	1.6%	16.7%	10.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	13.7%	1.5%	16.7%	10.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	13.7%	1.5%	16.7%	10.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	13.7%	1.5%	16.7%	10.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	13.7%	1.5%	34.3%	10.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	13.7%	1.5%	34.3%	10.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	13.7%	1.5%	34.3%	10.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	34.3%	10.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	34.3%	10.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	34.3%	10.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	34.3%	10.4%	24.9%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	34.3%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	18.5%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	40.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	37.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	37.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	20.3%	1.5%	37.4%	14.9%	24.9%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	17.5%	1.5%	37.4%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	17.5%	1.5%	37.4%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	17.5%	1.5%	37.4%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	17.5%	1.5%	37.4%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	17.5%	1.5%	37.4%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	17.5%	1.4%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	17.5%	1.4%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	17.5%	1.4%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	20.0%	1.4%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	20.0%	1.5%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	20.0%	1.9%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	20.0%	1.9%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	20.0%	1.9%	29.7%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	20.0%	1.9%	33.9%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	20.0%	1.9%	33.9%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	20.0%	1.9%	33.9%	10.5%	6.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	33.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	33.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	33.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	33.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	33.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	19.5%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	19.5%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	18.1%	1.9%	19.5%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	19.5%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	19.5%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	19.5%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	19.5%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	22.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	22.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	22.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	19.4%	1.9%	22.9%	9.3%	1.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	16.8%	1.9%	22.9%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	16.8%	1.9%	22.9%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	16.8%	1.9%	22.9%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	16.8%	1.9%	22.9%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	16.8%	1.9%	22.9%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	16.8%	1.4%	19.2%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	16.8%	1.4%	19.2%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	16.8%	1.4%	19.2%	5.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	19.2%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	19.2%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	19.2%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	19.2%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	18.3%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	18.3%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	18.3%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	14.5%	1.6%	18.3%	5.1%	5.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	16.8%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	15.6%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	15.6%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	15.6%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	15.6%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00	15.6%	1.6%	18.3%	5.6%	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	70.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	66.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗