daily prop · Kansas City, MO · Plains & South Central · settles Thu Oct 22

Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

42¢

american +141 · decimal 2.41

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		64¢
aifs		62¢
ndfd		55¢
icon		43¢
nbm		41¢
hres		20¢
eps		20¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F4¢

72–73°F16¢

74–75°F33¢

76–77°F30¢

78–79°F13¢

80–81°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape