KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

62%

43%

20%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

EPSNO 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.90u · EPS −57.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:12+00:00	66.4%	24.1%	60.6%	25.0%	24.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	66.4%	24.1%	71.2%	25.0%	24.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	66.4%	24.1%	71.2%	25.0%	24.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	66.4%	24.1%	71.2%	25.0%	24.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	66.4%	24.1%	71.2%	25.0%	24.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	66.1%	24.1%	71.2%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	66.1%	24.1%	71.2%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	66.1%	24.1%	71.2%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	66.1%	24.1%	71.2%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	66.1%	22.2%	60.6%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	66.1%	22.2%	60.6%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	66.1%	22.2%	60.6%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	66.1%	22.2%	60.6%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	62.8%	22.2%	60.6%	26.8%	36.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	64.4%	19.7%	53.2%	22.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	64.4%	19.7%	61.6%	22.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	64.4%	19.7%	61.6%	22.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	64.4%	19.7%	61.6%	22.4%	31.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	61.6%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	61.6%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	61.6%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	61.6%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00	68.0%	19.7%	61.6%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00	68.0%	20.2%	63.9%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	68.0%	20.2%	63.9%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	68.0%	20.2%	63.9%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	62.0%	20.2%	63.9%	20.3%	43.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	62.0%	20.2%	64.0%	20.3%	43.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	64%	78.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	78.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	43%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	73.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	74.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗