— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
88¢
wn2
82¢
hres
77¢
aifs
76¢
eps
72¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
35¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F12¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F20¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,365 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.476 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape