KMCI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

82%

77%

76%

72%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 79.8¢Risks 39.90u

EPSNO 20.2¢Risks 10.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +10.10u · EPS −10.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	81.8%	55.1%	71.8%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	81.8%	55.1%	71.8%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	81.8%	55.1%	71.8%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	81.8%	55.1%	47.4%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	81.8%	55.1%	47.4%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	81.8%	55.1%	47.4%	63.6%	68.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	47.4%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	47.4%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	47.4%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	47.4%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	47.4%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	83.7%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	68.9%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	61.8%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	61.8%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	74.2%	55.1%	61.8%	63.1%	73.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	76.1%	55.1%	61.8%	63.1%	87.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	76.1%	55.1%	61.8%	63.1%	87.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	76.1%	55.1%	61.8%	63.1%	87.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	76.1%	55.1%	61.8%	63.1%	87.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	81.6%	77.2%	87.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	81.6%	77.2%	87.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	81.6%	77.2%	87.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	81.6%	77.2%	87.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	81.7%	77.2%	87.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	76.1%	71.8%	81.7%	77.2%	87.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	81.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	78.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	76.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗