— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
70¢
icon
58¢
wn2
56¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
52¢
eps
38¢
nbm
35¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F8¢
84–85°F4¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape