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KMCI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
70%
ICON
58%
WN2
56%
HRES
52%
EPS
38%
Consensus
52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 54.3¢Risks 54.30u
VS
EPSNO 45.7¢Risks 45.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.70u · EPS −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 38.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 58.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:0052.1%29.1%55.4%32.6%49.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:0052.1%29.1%34.8%32.6%49.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0052.1%29.1%34.8%32.6%49.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:0052.1%29.1%34.8%32.6%49.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:0072.9%29.1%34.8%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0072.9%29.1%34.8%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0072.9%29.1%34.8%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:0072.9%29.1%34.8%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:0072.9%29.1%34.8%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:0072.9%38.2%56.0%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:0072.9%38.2%56.0%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0072.9%38.2%56.0%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0070.4%38.2%56.0%51.8%58.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0070.4%38.2%56.0%51.8%57.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single70%79.4°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON58%77.9°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 256%77.2°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%77.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES52%76.8°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble38%75.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend35%74.0°F6.7°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗