— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
63¢
ndfd
54¢
wn2
49¢
eps
41¢
icon
34¢
nbm
27¢
hres
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F13¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F10¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-14T02:59:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape