KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

49%

41%

34%

14%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.55u

HRESNO 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.45u · HRES −61.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:38+00:00	62.6%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	76.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	62.6%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	76.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	62.6%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	76.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	62.6%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	76.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	62.6%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	76.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	62.6%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	76.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	63.4%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	74.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	63.4%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	74.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	63.4%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	74.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	63.4%	59.9%	69.9%	49.4%	74.1%
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	63.4%	59.9%	69.9%	50.0%	74.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	63.4%	39.8%	57.7%	50.0%	74.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	63.4%	39.8%	57.7%	50.0%	74.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	63.4%	39.8%	57.7%	50.0%	74.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	59.6%	39.8%	57.7%	50.0%	74.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	59.5%	39.8%	57.7%	50.0%	73.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	59.5%	41.1%	57.7%	50.0%	73.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	59.5%	41.1%	57.7%	50.0%	73.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	59.5%	41.1%	57.7%	50.0%	73.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	59.5%	41.1%	48.1%	50.0%	73.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	59.5%	41.1%	48.1%	50.0%	73.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	59.5%	41.1%	48.1%	50.0%	73.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	48.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	48.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	48.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	48.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	48.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	49.0%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	49.0%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	58.0%	41.1%	49.0%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	62.6%	41.1%	49.0%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	62.6%	41.1%	49.0%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	62.6%	41.1%	49.0%	14.5%	34.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	85.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	82.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	81.1°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	27%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	77.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗