— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
22¢
hres
16¢
nbm
6¢
icon
6¢
aifs
5¢
eps
1¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F34¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-LE76 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape