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KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
16%
ICON
6%
AIFS
5%
EPS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.8¢Risks 4.38u
VS
WN2NO 91.2¢Risks 45.62u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.62u · WN2 −45.62u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 16.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:09+00:005.3%1.2%1.1%16.4%5.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:005.3%1.2%1.1%16.4%5.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:005.3%1.2%1.1%16.4%5.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:005.3%1.2%1.1%16.4%5.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:005.3%1.2%1.1%16.4%5.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast22%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS HRES16%81.4°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend6%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON6%84.1°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single5%83.9°F4.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%80.8°F1.9°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%85.9°F4.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Orlando stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗