— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
66¢
aifs
62¢
ndfd
55¢
icon
38¢
eps
37¢
hres
34¢
nbm
33¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F26¢
84–85°F13¢
86–87°F4¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape