KMCO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

62%

38%

37%

34%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.3¢Risks 50.25u

HRESNO 49.7¢Risks 49.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.75u · HRES −49.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	60.3%	35.6%	69.5%	30.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	60.3%	35.6%	69.5%	30.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	60.3%	35.6%	69.5%	30.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	60.3%	35.6%	67.6%	30.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	60.3%	35.6%	67.6%	30.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	60.3%	35.6%	67.6%	30.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	67.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	67.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	67.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	67.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	67.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:27+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	72.3%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	68.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	68.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	61.2%	35.6%	68.6%	50.0%	48.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	62.0%	35.6%	68.6%	50.0%	38.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	62.0%	35.6%	68.6%	50.0%	38.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	62.0%	35.6%	68.6%	50.0%	38.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	62.0%	35.6%	68.6%	50.0%	38.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00	62.0%	36.6%	66.2%	34.3%	38.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	62.0%	36.6%	66.2%	34.3%	38.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	62.0%	36.6%	66.2%	34.3%	38.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	62.0%	36.6%	66.2%	34.3%	38.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	62.0%	36.6%	66.2%	34.3%	38.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	66%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	82.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	38%	80.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	80.8°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	79.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗