— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
92¢
wn2
80¢
hres
74¢
aifs
69¢
icon
67¢
nbm
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F24¢
82–83°F23¢
84–85°F15¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261025-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape