KMCO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

74%

69%

67%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.2¢Risks 79.25u

ICONNO 20.8¢Risks 20.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.75u · ICON −20.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	68.1%	94.6%	77.1%	47.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	68.1%	94.6%	77.1%	47.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	68.1%	94.6%	77.1%	47.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	68.1%	94.6%	77.1%	47.5%	37.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	82.2%	94.6%	77.1%	47.5%	37.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	82.2%	94.6%	77.1%	47.5%	37.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	82.2%	91.5%	77.1%	47.5%	37.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	82.2%	91.5%	77.1%	47.5%	37.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	82.2%	91.5%	77.7%	47.5%	37.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	82.2%	91.5%	77.7%	47.5%	37.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	82.2%	91.5%	77.7%	47.5%	37.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	77.7%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	77.7%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	77.7%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	77.7%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	77.7%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	80.5%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	80.5%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	67.4%	91.5%	80.5%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	69.3%	91.5%	80.5%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	69.3%	91.5%	80.5%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	69.3%	91.5%	80.5%	74.3%	67.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	69.3%	91.5%	80.5%	74.3%	67.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	80.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	81.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	81.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	80.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	81.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261025-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗