— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
87¢
wn2
84¢
eps
83¢
hres
79¢
icon
74¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F29¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape