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KMEM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
87%
WN2
84%
EPS
84%
HRES
79%
ICON
75%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 80.8¢Risks 40.42u
VS
ICONNO 19.1¢Risks 9.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +9.57u · ICON −9.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:23+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 86.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:23+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:23+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:23+00:0085.5%81.1%73.4%64.8%76.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0085.5%81.1%73.4%64.8%76.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0085.5%81.1%87.1%64.8%76.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0085.5%81.1%87.1%64.8%76.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:0085.5%81.1%87.1%64.8%76.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0086.7%81.1%87.1%64.8%74.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:0086.7%81.1%87.1%64.8%74.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0086.7%81.1%87.1%64.8%74.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0086.7%81.1%87.1%64.8%74.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:0086.7%83.3%84.1%79.0%74.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0086.7%83.3%84.1%79.0%74.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0086.7%83.3%84.1%79.0%74.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0086.7%83.3%84.1%79.0%74.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:12+00:0086.7%83.7%84.2%79.0%75.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single87%82.0°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 284%80.6°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble84%80.4°F3.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES79%80.8°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON75%79.9°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend59%78.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast56%78.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗