— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
59¢
aifs
55¢
ndfd
54¢
wn2
50¢
icon
49¢
hres
44¢
eps
40¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F27¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape