KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

50%

49%

44%

40%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.3¢Risks 23.65u

EPSNO 52.7¢Risks 26.35u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.35u · EPS −26.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:39+00:00	48.5%	35.0%	56.0%	28.2%	57.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	48.5%	35.0%	53.4%	28.2%	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	48.5%	35.0%	53.4%	28.2%	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	48.5%	35.0%	53.4%	28.2%	57.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00	48.4%	35.0%	53.4%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	48.4%	35.0%	53.4%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	48.4%	35.0%	53.4%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	48.4%	35.0%	53.4%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:07+00:00	48.4%	35.0%	53.4%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:48+00:00	48.4%	44.1%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	48.4%	44.1%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	48.4%	44.1%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	48.4%	44.1%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	48.4%	44.1%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	48.4%	39.8%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	48.4%	39.8%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	48.4%	39.8%	49.0%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	48.4%	39.8%	47.1%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	48.4%	39.8%	47.1%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:56+00:00	48.4%	39.8%	47.1%	51.4%	54.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:28+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	47.1%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	47.1%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	47.1%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	47.1%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	47.1%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	50.0%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	50.0%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	50.0%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:45+00:00	54.8%	39.8%	50.0%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	54.8%	39.8%	50.0%	44.5%	48.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	54.8%	39.8%	50.0%	44.5%	48.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	82.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	81.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	49%	81.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	80.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	80.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Memphis high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗