daily prop · Memphis, TN · Southeast · settles Sat Oct 24

Memphis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sat Oct 24

16¢

american +530 · decimal 6.3

on the tape

83°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 83°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		53¢
aifs		48¢
icon		48¢
hres		41¢
eps		26¢
ndfd		11¢
nbm		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

72–73°F1¢

74–75°F5¢

76–77°F15¢

78–79°F26¢

80–81°F27¢

82–83°F17¢

84–85°F7¢

86–87°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape