KMEM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Memphis, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

48%

48%

41%

26%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.8¢Risks 39.80u

EPSNO 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.20u · EPS −60.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:20+00:00	55.5%	50.0%	62.2%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	55.5%	50.0%	62.2%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	55.5%	50.0%	62.2%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	55.5%	50.0%	62.2%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	55.5%	50.0%	62.2%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	55.5%	37.3%	60.1%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	55.5%	37.3%	60.1%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	55.5%	37.3%	60.1%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	54.2%	37.3%	60.1%	53.1%	21.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	54.2%	37.3%	60.0%	53.1%	22.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	54.2%	33.7%	60.0%	53.1%	22.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	54.2%	33.7%	60.0%	53.1%	22.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	54.2%	33.7%	62.3%	53.1%	22.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	54.2%	33.7%	62.3%	53.1%	22.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	54.2%	33.7%	62.3%	53.1%	22.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	54.2%	33.7%	62.3%	53.1%	22.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	62.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	62.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	62.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	62.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	52.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	52.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	52.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	50.0%	33.7%	52.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	51.4%	33.7%	52.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	51.4%	33.7%	52.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	51.4%	33.7%	52.3%	34.9%	52.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:26+00:00	46.8%	26.4%	40.4%	37.8%	42.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	46.8%	26.4%	40.4%	37.8%	42.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	46.8%	26.4%	55.8%	37.8%	42.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	46.8%	26.4%	55.8%	37.8%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	46.8%	26.4%	55.8%	37.8%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	55.8%	37.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	55.8%	37.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	55.8%	37.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	55.8%	37.8%	47.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	53.2%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	53.2%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	53.2%	41.3%	47.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	48.3%	26.4%	53.2%	41.3%	47.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	53%	82.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	82.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	82.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	81.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	80.8°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMEM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMEM-20261024-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Memphis runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗