daily prop · Miami, FL · Southeast · settles Sun Oct 18

Miami high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

55¢

american -122 · decimal 1.82

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 84°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		79¢
ndfd		56¢
wn2		54¢
rrfs		49¢
aifs		45¢
nbm		44¢
icon		40¢
hres		31¢
hrrr		11¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

78–79°F1¢

80–81°F5¢

82–83°F16¢

84–85°F28¢

86–87°F28¢

88–89°F16¢

90–91°F5¢

92–93°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,052 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.892.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape