KMIA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

54%

45%

40%

31%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

HRESNO 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.90u · HRES −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	70.0%	57.9%	73.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	70.0%	57.9%	73.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	70.0%	57.9%	73.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	68.5%	57.9%	73.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	68.5%	57.9%	73.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	68.5%	57.9%	73.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	68.5%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	68.5%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	68.5%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	68.5%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	66.9%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	66.9%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	66.9%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	57.5%	98.0%	66.9%	43.9%	71.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	66.9%	43.9%	71.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	66.9%	43.9%	71.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	56.0%	98.0%	66.9%	43.9%	71.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	45.4%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	45.4%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	45.4%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	45.4%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	45.4%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	38.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	50.9%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	50.9%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	50.9%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	50.9%	90.2%	55.9%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	50.9%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	50.9%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	50.9%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	52.4%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	55.6%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	53.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	52.0%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	52.0%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	52.0%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	52.0%	90.2%	57.1%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	52.0%	80.0%	47.4%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	52.0%	80.0%	47.4%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	52.0%	80.0%	47.4%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	52.0%	80.0%	47.4%	47.3%	48.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	47.4%	47.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	47.4%	47.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	47.4%	47.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	47.4%	47.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	37.4%	47.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	37.4%	47.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	37.4%	47.1%	48.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	37.4%	47.1%	27.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	37.4%	47.1%	27.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	37.4%	47.1%	27.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	37.4%	47.1%	27.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	37.4%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:25+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	39.8%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	39.8%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	45.1%	80.0%	39.8%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	43.2%	80.0%	39.8%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	43.2%	80.0%	39.8%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	43.2%	80.0%	39.8%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	43.2%	80.0%	39.8%	49.0%	27.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	47.0%	78.8%	47.3%	29.5%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	47.0%	78.8%	47.3%	29.5%	34.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	47.0%	78.8%	47.3%	29.5%	34.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	47.0%	78.8%	50.0%	29.5%	34.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	47.0%	78.8%	50.0%	29.5%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	47.0%	78.8%	50.0%	29.5%	34.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	50.0%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	50.0%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	50.0%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	50.0%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	50.0%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	54.1%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	54.1%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	46.0%	78.8%	54.1%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	45.0%	78.8%	54.1%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	45.0%	78.8%	54.1%	31.4%	39.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	45.0%	78.8%	54.1%	31.4%	39.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	85.1°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	83.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	83.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	82.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261018-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗