— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
28¢
wn2
22¢
ndfd
22¢
icon
17¢
hres
12¢
eps
4¢
nbm
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F29¢
84–85°F32¢
86–87°F18¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-16T14:19:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape