KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

22%

17%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

EPSNO 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +84.80u · EPS −84.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:43+00:00	37.7%	17.2%	36.9%	14.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	37.7%	17.2%	36.9%	14.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	37.7%	17.2%	36.9%	14.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	37.7%	17.2%	36.9%	14.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	37.7%	17.2%	36.2%	14.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	37.7%	17.2%	36.2%	14.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	37.7%	17.2%	36.2%	14.2%	36.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	33.8%	17.2%	36.2%	14.2%	55.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:23+00:00	33.8%	17.2%	36.2%	14.2%	55.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	33.8%	17.2%	36.2%	14.2%	55.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	33.8%	17.2%	36.2%	14.2%	55.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	33.8%	17.2%	36.2%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	33.8%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	33.8%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	33.8%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:34+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	38.4%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	34.7%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	34.7%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	33.2%	15.9%	34.7%	23.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	31.5%	15.9%	34.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	31.5%	15.9%	34.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	31.5%	15.9%	34.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	31.5%	15.9%	34.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	31.5%	15.9%	34.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	32.6%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	32.6%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	32.6%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	32.6%	14.4%	59.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	32.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	32.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	32.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	32.7%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	36.6%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	36.6%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	30.2%	3.9%	36.6%	14.1%	59.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	36.6%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	36.6%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	36.6%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	36.6%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	36.6%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	31.2%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	31.2%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	32.2%	3.9%	31.2%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.2%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.2%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.2%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.2%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.9%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.9%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.9%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00	34.2%	3.9%	31.9%	17.8%	56.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	28.6%	3.9%	31.9%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	28.6%	3.9%	31.9%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	28.6%	3.9%	31.9%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	28.6%	3.9%	31.9%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	28.6%	3.9%	31.9%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	28.6%	3.5%	28.0%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	28.6%	3.5%	28.0%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	28.6%	3.5%	28.0%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	24.6%	3.5%	28.0%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	24.6%	3.5%	28.0%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	24.6%	4.0%	28.0%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	24.6%	4.0%	28.0%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	24.6%	4.0%	23.3%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	24.6%	4.0%	23.3%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	24.6%	4.0%	23.3%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	24.6%	4.0%	23.3%	15.8%	41.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	23.4%	4.0%	23.3%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:15+00:00	23.4%	4.0%	23.3%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	23.4%	4.0%	23.3%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	23.4%	4.0%	23.3%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	23.4%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	23.4%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	23.4%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:32+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	24.8%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	22.5%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	22.5%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	22.5%	13.5%	21.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	27.8%	4.0%	22.5%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	27.8%	4.0%	22.5%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	27.8%	4.0%	22.5%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	27.8%	4.0%	22.5%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	27.8%	4.0%	22.5%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00	27.8%	2.6%	21.8%	11.9%	17.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	28%	84.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	84.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	82.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	81.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	84.2°F	1.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗