— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
85¢
icon
71¢
aifs
68¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
29¢
hres
17¢
eps
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F8¢
64–65°F15¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,414 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape