KMKE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

71%

68%

17%

12%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

EPSNO 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.60u · EPS −51.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00	69.3%	37.2%	92.9%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	69.3%	37.2%	92.9%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	69.3%	37.2%	92.9%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	69.3%	37.2%	92.9%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	69.3%	37.2%	92.9%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	69.3%	24.1%	81.6%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	69.3%	24.1%	81.6%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	69.3%	24.1%	81.6%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	58.9%	24.1%	81.6%	21.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	58.9%	24.1%	81.6%	21.0%	24.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:41+00:00	58.9%	22.2%	81.6%	21.0%	24.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	58.9%	22.2%	81.6%	21.0%	24.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	58.9%	22.2%	77.1%	21.0%	24.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	58.9%	22.2%	77.1%	21.0%	24.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	58.9%	22.2%	77.1%	21.0%	24.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	58.9%	22.2%	77.1%	21.0%	24.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	77.1%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	77.1%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	77.1%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	77.1%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	57.8%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	57.8%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	57.8%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	47.2%	22.2%	57.8%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	64.9%	22.2%	57.8%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	64.9%	22.2%	57.8%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	64.9%	22.2%	57.8%	22.8%	27.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	68.5%	12.9%	74.0%	8.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	68.5%	12.0%	74.0%	8.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	68.5%	12.0%	74.0%	8.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	68.5%	12.0%	74.7%	8.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	68.5%	12.0%	74.7%	8.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	68.5%	12.0%	74.7%	8.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	74.7%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	74.7%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	74.7%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	74.7%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	74.7%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	84.8%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	84.8%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	67.1%	12.0%	84.8%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	67.8%	12.0%	84.8%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	67.8%	12.0%	84.8%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	67.8%	12.0%	84.8%	17.0%	71.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	67.8%	12.0%	84.8%	17.0%	71.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	71.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	70.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	65.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	61.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	62.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗