— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
aifs
92¢
icon
91¢
hres
86¢
eps
71¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMKE-20261025-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape