KMKE / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

91%

86%

71%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.5¢Risks 84.55u

EPSNO 15.5¢Risks 15.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.45u · EPS −15.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	88.8%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	88.8%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	88.8%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	88.8%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	62.9%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	62.9%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	62.9%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	62.9%	49.1%	93.7%	69.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	62.9%	49.1%	95.0%	69.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	62.9%	49.1%	95.0%	69.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	62.9%	49.1%	95.0%	69.0%	26.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.0%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.0%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.0%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.0%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.0%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	86.0%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	95.4%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	89.8%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	89.8%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	74.6%	49.1%	89.8%	78.5%	72.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00	94.0%	49.1%	89.8%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	94.0%	49.1%	89.8%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	94.0%	49.1%	89.8%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	94.0%	49.1%	89.8%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:11+00:00	94.0%	49.1%	89.8%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:52+00:00	94.0%	50.0%	97.4%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:33+00:00	94.0%	50.0%	97.4%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	94.0%	50.0%	97.4%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	97.4%	52.4%	82.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	89.6%	50.0%	97.4%	52.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	89.6%	51.7%	97.4%	52.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	89.6%	51.7%	97.4%	52.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	89.6%	51.7%	97.4%	52.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	89.6%	51.7%	91.5%	52.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	89.6%	51.7%	91.5%	52.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	89.6%	51.7%	91.5%	52.4%	82.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	91.5%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	91.5%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	91.5%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	91.5%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	91.5%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	93.1%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:37+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	95.9%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	94.1%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	94.1%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	81.8%	51.7%	94.1%	58.4%	89.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	92.5%	51.7%	94.1%	58.4%	91.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	92.5%	51.7%	94.1%	58.4%	91.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	92.5%	51.7%	94.1%	58.4%	91.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	92.5%	51.7%	94.1%	58.4%	91.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:35+00:00	92.5%	70.7%	98.4%	85.8%	91.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	92.5%	70.7%	98.4%	85.8%	91.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	92.5%	70.7%	98.4%	85.8%	91.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	92.5%	70.7%	98.4%	85.8%	91.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	92.5%	70.7%	98.4%	85.9%	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	74.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	72.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	91%	73.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	71.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗