— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
84¢
eps
84¢
rrfs
74¢
nbm
74¢
hres
66¢
icon
65¢
wn2
59¢
ndfd
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F30¢
80–81°F27¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F4¢
86–87°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,366 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.569 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape