KMSP / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Sep 08 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

84%

66%

65%

59%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

WN2NO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.45u · WN2 −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00	72.0%	84.4%	51.1%	44.7%	15.9%
2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00	72.0%	84.4%	51.1%	44.7%	15.9%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	72.0%	84.4%	51.1%	44.7%	15.9%
2026-09-07T14:51:46+00:00	72.0%	84.4%	51.1%	44.7%	15.9%
2026-09-07T14:51:49+00:00	72.0%	84.4%	51.1%	44.7%	15.9%
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	77.2%	83.8%	54.6%	67.6%	43.2%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	77.2%	83.8%	54.6%	67.6%	43.2%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	77.2%	83.8%	52.3%	67.6%	43.2%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	77.2%	83.8%	52.3%	67.6%	43.2%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	77.2%	83.8%	52.3%	67.6%	43.2%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00	83.7%	83.8%	52.3%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00	83.7%	83.8%	52.3%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00	83.7%	83.8%	52.3%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00	83.7%	83.8%	52.3%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00	83.7%	83.7%	52.3%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00	83.7%	83.7%	59.4%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	83.7%	83.7%	59.4%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00	83.7%	83.7%	59.4%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00	83.7%	83.7%	59.4%	66.4%	65.4%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00	83.7%	83.6%	59.4%	66.4%	65.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	74%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	74%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	65%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 78°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗