— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
73¢
rrfs
71¢
eps
66¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
57¢
wn2
36¢
hres
34¢
icon
30¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F30¢
80–81°F27¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F4¢
86–87°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,366 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.569 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape