KMSP / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

36%

34%

30%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.4¢Risks 51.45u

ICONNO 48.6¢Risks 48.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.55u · ICON −48.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	36.1%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	36.1%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	36.1%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	36.1%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	36.1%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	31.8%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	31.8%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	31.8%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	69.2%	64.3%	31.8%	45.8%	43.3%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	71.7%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	73.3%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	73.3%	64.3%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	73.3%	65.5%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	73.3%	65.5%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	73.3%	65.5%	31.8%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	73.3%	65.5%	36.1%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	73.3%	65.5%	36.1%	33.6%	29.6%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	73.3%	65.5%	36.1%	33.6%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	82.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	80.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	80.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	78.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	77.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260909-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 08 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 80°F · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗