— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
70¢
aifs
68¢
ndfd
57¢
nbm
40¢
hres
36¢
eps
23¢
wn2
20¢
icon
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F28¢
80–81°F28¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,317 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.753 vs climatology 9.34.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape