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KMSP / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
68%
HRES
36%
EPS
23%
WN2
20%
ICON
16%
Consensus
33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 42.5¢Risks 42.45u
VS
ICONNO 57.5¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +57.55u · ICON −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.1% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.7% · 2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.7% · 2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.7% · 2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.7% · 2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.7% · 2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.7% · 2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.8% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.2% · 2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.7% · 2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.7% · 2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.7% · 2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.4% · 2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00IFS HRES: 20.7% · 2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00IFS HRES: 35.6% · 2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00IFS HRES: 35.6% · 2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00IFS HRES: 35.6% · 2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00IFS HRES: 35.6% · 2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00IFS HRES: 35.6% · 2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00IFS HRES: 35.6% · 2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:0009-08 03:3809-08 11:0909-10 06:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:0063.1%20.1%16.9%36.3%12.1%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:0063.1%20.1%16.9%36.3%12.1%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:0063.1%20.1%19.8%36.3%12.1%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:0063.1%20.1%19.8%36.3%12.1%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0063.1%20.1%19.8%36.3%12.1%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:0057.4%20.1%19.8%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:0057.4%20.1%19.8%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:0057.4%20.1%19.8%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:0057.4%20.1%19.8%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:0057.4%20.8%19.8%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:0057.4%20.8%17.2%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:0057.4%20.8%17.2%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:0057.4%20.8%17.2%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:0062.8%20.8%17.2%20.7%8.1%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:0062.8%20.8%17.2%20.7%8.2%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:0068.4%22.7%18.7%35.6%18.4%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:0068.4%22.7%18.7%35.6%18.4%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:0068.4%22.7%18.7%35.6%16.5%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:0068.4%22.7%20.4%35.6%16.5%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:0068.4%22.7%20.4%35.6%16.5%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:0068.4%22.7%20.4%35.6%16.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single68%83.5°F4.2°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
NWS forecast57%82.0°F2.8°F2026-09-10 02:00Pending
National Blend40%81.0°F1.9°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%80.1°F3.8°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%79.4°F2.8°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%78.7°F3.4°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
ICON16%78.2°F3.4°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗