daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Thu Sep 10

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Thu Sep 10

2¢

american +6523 · decimal 66.23

on the tape

87°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 87°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		22¢
ndfd		10¢
hres		7¢
rrfs		6¢
nbm		2¢
wn2		1¢
icon		1¢
eps		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

72–73°F1¢

74–75°F5¢

76–77°F16¢

78–79°F28¢

80–81°F28¢

82–83°F16¢

84–85°F5¢

86–87°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,267 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.753 vs climatology 9.325.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape