WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
22%
HRES
7%
WN2
1%
ICON
<1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 11.2¢Risks 11.20u
VS
EPSNO 88.8¢Risks 88.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.80u · EPS −88.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.6% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00IFS HRES: 7.4% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0009-08 05:0809-08 05:5309-08 06:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:0021.8%0.6%1.3%7.4%0.7%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:0021.8%0.6%1.3%7.4%0.7%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0021.8%0.6%1.3%7.4%0.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single22%——Not retainedPending
NWS forecast10%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES7%——Not retainedPending
RRFS6%——Not retainedPending
National Blend2%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 21%——Not retainedPending
ICON<1%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble<1%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260910-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 08 · 05:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗