daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Fri Sep 11

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Sep 11

47¢

american +114 · decimal 2.14

on the tape

86°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 86°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		81¢
rrfs		79¢
hres		60¢
nbm		60¢
hrrr		59¢
ndfd		57¢
wn2		41¢
eps		24¢
icon		15¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

78–79°F1¢

80–81°F5¢

82–83°F17¢

84–85°F31¢

86–87°F29¢

88–89°F14¢

90–91°F4¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,472 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.568 vs climatology 9.329.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape