KMSP / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Sep 11 · 06:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

60%

41%

24%

15%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.2¢Risks 48.20u

ICONNO 51.8¢Risks 51.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.80u · ICON −51.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:25:59+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	25.2%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	25.2%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:46+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	25.2%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T14:51:49+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	25.2%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T15:36:57+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	25.2%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T16:22:04+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	25.2%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T17:07:10+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	22.0%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T17:52:15+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	22.0%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	22.0%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	41.7%	10.4%	22.0%	26.7%	11.2%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	22.0%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	22.0%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-07T21:37:41+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	22.0%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-07T22:22:46+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	22.0%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-07T23:07:51+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	19.1%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-07T23:52:56+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	19.1%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	50.0%	10.4%	19.1%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-08T01:23:06+00:00	55.0%	10.4%	19.1%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-08T02:08:11+00:00	55.0%	10.4%	19.1%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-08T02:53:16+00:00	55.0%	9.9%	19.1%	37.8%	9.3%
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	55.0%	9.9%	19.1%	39.2%	9.3%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	55.0%	9.9%	19.1%	39.2%	9.3%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	55.0%	9.9%	26.9%	39.2%	9.3%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	55.0%	9.9%	26.9%	39.2%	9.3%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	55.0%	9.9%	26.9%	39.2%	9.3%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00	42.1%	9.9%	26.9%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00	42.1%	9.9%	26.9%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00	42.1%	9.9%	26.9%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00	42.1%	9.9%	26.9%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00	42.1%	8.9%	26.9%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00	42.1%	8.9%	28.3%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	42.1%	8.9%	28.3%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00	42.1%	8.9%	28.3%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00	46.5%	8.9%	28.3%	19.6%	13.8%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00	46.5%	8.9%	28.3%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T14:54:41+00:00	46.5%	9.7%	28.3%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	28.3%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T15:49:10+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	28.3%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T16:00:09+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	28.3%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	28.3%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T17:06:45+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	25.5%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T17:20:30+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	25.5%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	25.5%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T18:50:40+00:00	46.5%	9.6%	25.5%	19.6%	13.9%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	25.5%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-08T20:20:51+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	25.5%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	25.5%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	25.5%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-08T22:36:05+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	25.5%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-08T23:21:11+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T00:51:23+00:00	55.3%	9.6%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T01:36:28+00:00	64.8%	9.6%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	64.8%	9.6%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T03:06:40+00:00	64.8%	9.5%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	64.8%	9.5%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	64.8%	9.5%	38.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	64.8%	9.5%	39.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T06:07:03+00:00	64.8%	9.5%	39.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	64.8%	9.5%	39.2%	37.9%	8.1%
2026-09-09T07:37:21+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	39.2%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	39.2%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	39.2%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	39.2%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T10:37:43+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	39.2%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T11:22:48+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	37.6%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T12:07:55+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	37.6%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	64.5%	9.5%	37.6%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T13:38:05+00:00	61.9%	9.5%	37.6%	38.7%	5.0%
2026-09-09T14:23:20+00:00	61.9%	9.4%	37.6%	38.6%	5.0%
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	61.9%	9.5%	37.6%	38.6%	5.0%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	61.9%	9.5%	37.6%	38.6%	5.0%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	61.9%	9.5%	37.6%	38.6%	14.7%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	61.9%	9.5%	25.5%	38.6%	14.7%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	61.9%	9.5%	25.5%	38.6%	14.7%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	61.9%	9.5%	25.5%	38.6%	14.7%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	25.5%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	25.5%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	25.5%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	25.5%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	25.5%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	26.4%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	26.4%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	66.3%	9.5%	26.4%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	67.1%	9.5%	26.4%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	67.1%	11.6%	26.4%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00	67.1%	11.6%	26.4%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00	67.1%	11.6%	26.4%	32.4%	14.7%
2026-09-10T04:40:25+00:00	67.1%	11.6%	26.4%	32.4%	20.7%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	67.1%	11.6%	30.3%	32.4%	20.7%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	67.1%	11.6%	30.3%	32.4%	20.7%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	67.1%	11.6%	30.3%	32.4%	20.7%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	76.4%	11.6%	30.3%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	76.4%	11.6%	30.3%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	76.4%	11.6%	30.3%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	76.4%	11.6%	30.3%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	76.4%	11.6%	30.3%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	76.4%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	76.4%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	76.4%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	80.6%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	80.0%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00	80.0%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	80.0%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	20.7%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00	80.0%	28.5%	31.8%	74.6%	21.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00	80.0%	28.5%	26.7%	74.6%	21.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	80.0%	28.5%	26.7%	74.6%	21.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	80.0%	28.5%	26.7%	74.6%	21.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	26.7%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	26.7%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	26.7%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	26.7%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	26.7%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	22.1%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	22.1%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00	76.5%	28.5%	22.1%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	22.1%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	22.1%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-11T03:13:37+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	22.1%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-11T03:58:46+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	22.1%	60.4%	21.5%
2026-09-11T04:43:51+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	22.1%	60.4%	15.1%
2026-09-11T05:28:57+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	40.6%	60.4%	15.1%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	40.6%	60.4%	15.1%
2026-09-11T06:59:09+00:00	81.3%	24.2%	40.6%	60.4%	15.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	89.2°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	86.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	86.0°F	2.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	86.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	83.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗