— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
82¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
33¢
aifs
24¢
icon
16¢
wn2
11¢
hres
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F20¢
68–69°F25¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F12¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 12,374 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.963 vs climatology 9.328.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape