KMSP / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Sep 08 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

24%

16%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

HRESNO 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.00u · HRES −55.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00	31.5%	78.4%	23.7%	37.6%	71.0%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	31.5%	78.4%	23.7%	37.6%	71.0%
2026-09-08T05:08:34+00:00	31.5%	78.4%	12.2%	37.6%	71.0%
2026-09-08T05:53:39+00:00	31.5%	78.4%	12.2%	37.6%	71.0%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	31.5%	78.4%	12.2%	37.6%	71.0%
2026-09-08T07:23:51+00:00	33.8%	78.4%	12.2%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T08:08:59+00:00	33.8%	78.4%	12.2%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T08:54:03+00:00	33.8%	78.4%	12.2%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T09:39:08+00:00	33.8%	78.4%	12.2%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T10:24:12+00:00	33.8%	81.6%	12.2%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T11:09:17+00:00	33.8%	81.6%	10.9%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	33.8%	81.6%	10.9%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T12:39:27+00:00	33.8%	81.6%	10.9%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T13:24:31+00:00	24.4%	81.6%	10.9%	8.4%	16.4%
2026-09-08T14:09:36+00:00	24.3%	81.6%	10.8%	8.4%	16.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	33%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	16%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260913-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗