— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
96¢
aifs
86¢
wn2
83¢
icon
74¢
hres
63¢
nbm
57¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F31¢
72–73°F28¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,689 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.564 vs climatology 9.295.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape