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KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Sep 11 · 02:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
AIFS
86%
WN2
83%
ICON
74%
HRES
63%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 79.7¢Risks 79.65u
VS
HRESNO 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +20.35u · HRES −20.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00AIFS Single: 85.5% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.6% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.9% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.9% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.4% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00IFS HRES: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00IFS HRES: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00IFS HRES: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00IFS HRES: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00IFS HRES: 75.3% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00IFS HRES: 63.4% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00ICON: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:00ICON: 98.6% · 2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:0009-10 15:1209-10 21:1209-11 02:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-10T15:12:02+00:0083.6%96.6%83.4%75.3%98.6%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:0083.6%96.6%83.4%75.3%98.6%
2026-09-10T16:42:16+00:0083.6%96.6%83.4%75.3%74.5%
2026-09-10T17:27:22+00:0083.6%96.6%82.7%75.3%74.5%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:0083.6%96.6%82.7%75.3%74.5%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:0083.6%96.6%82.7%75.3%74.5%
2026-09-10T19:42:40+00:0082.1%96.6%82.7%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:0082.1%96.6%82.7%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:0082.1%96.6%82.7%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:0082.1%96.6%82.7%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:0082.1%96.6%82.7%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:0082.1%96.6%83.4%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-11T00:13:10+00:0082.1%96.6%83.4%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-11T00:58:17+00:0082.1%96.6%83.4%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:0085.5%95.9%83.4%63.4%74.5%
2026-09-11T02:28:29+00:0085.5%95.9%83.4%63.4%74.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%74.2°F5.0°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single86%70.8°F5.0°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%69.5°F4.1°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
ICON74%69.3°F5.8°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
IFS HRES63%67.5°F5.9°F2026-09-10 12:00Pending
National Blend57%66.6°F5.9°F2026-09-10 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.1°F2026-09-10 14:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗