— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
77¢
aifs
64¢
wn2
59¢
nbm
57¢
ndfd
57¢
icon
56¢
hres
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F32¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,639 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.565 vs climatology 9.303.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape