KMSP / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

64%

59%

56%

44%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.5¢Risks 60.45u

HRESNO 39.5¢Risks 39.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.55u · HRES −39.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T15:08:27+00:00	91.0%	79.8%	44.6%	39.3%	45.3%
2026-09-09T15:53:35+00:00	91.0%	79.6%	44.6%	39.3%	45.3%
2026-09-09T16:38:40+00:00	91.0%	79.6%	44.6%	39.3%	44.7%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	91.0%	79.6%	50.9%	39.3%	44.7%
2026-09-09T18:08:53+00:00	91.0%	79.6%	50.9%	39.3%	44.7%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	91.0%	79.6%	50.9%	39.3%	44.7%
2026-09-09T19:39:06+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	50.9%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-09T20:24:14+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	50.9%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	50.9%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-09T21:54:24+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	50.9%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-09T22:39:32+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	50.9%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	36.0%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-10T00:09:42+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	36.0%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-10T00:54:49+00:00	76.6%	79.6%	36.0%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-10T01:39:56+00:00	65.2%	79.6%	36.0%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-10T02:25:02+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	36.0%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-10T03:10:11+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	36.0%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-10T03:55:20+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	36.0%	24.9%	44.7%
2026-09-10T04:40:25+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	36.0%	24.9%	90.8%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	40.2%	24.9%	90.8%
2026-09-10T06:10:37+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	40.2%	24.9%	90.8%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	65.2%	77.7%	40.2%	24.9%	90.8%
2026-09-10T07:40:50+00:00	54.0%	77.7%	40.2%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T08:26:02+00:00	54.0%	77.7%	40.2%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T09:11:06+00:00	54.0%	77.7%	40.2%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T09:56:10+00:00	54.0%	77.7%	40.2%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T10:41:15+00:00	54.0%	77.7%	40.2%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T11:26:21+00:00	54.0%	79.4%	40.4%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T12:11:28+00:00	54.0%	79.4%	40.4%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T12:56:32+00:00	54.0%	79.4%	40.4%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T13:41:36+00:00	49.2%	79.4%	40.4%	43.2%	90.8%
2026-09-10T14:26:56+00:00	49.2%	79.4%	40.4%	43.2%	90.9%
2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00	49.1%	82.7%	50.0%	55.3%	45.9%
2026-09-12T16:05:22+00:00	49.1%	82.7%	50.0%	55.3%	45.9%
2026-09-12T16:50:27+00:00	49.1%	82.7%	50.0%	55.3%	45.9%
2026-09-12T17:35:33+00:00	49.1%	82.7%	46.7%	55.3%	45.9%
2026-09-12T18:20:42+00:00	49.1%	82.7%	46.7%	55.3%	45.9%
2026-09-12T19:05:46+00:00	49.1%	82.7%	46.7%	55.3%	45.9%
2026-09-12T19:50:51+00:00	51.8%	82.7%	46.7%	55.3%	34.0%
2026-09-12T20:35:58+00:00	51.8%	82.7%	46.7%	55.3%	34.0%
2026-09-12T21:21:03+00:00	51.8%	82.7%	46.7%	55.3%	34.0%
2026-09-12T22:06:08+00:00	51.8%	82.7%	46.7%	55.3%	34.0%
2026-09-12T22:51:14+00:00	51.8%	82.7%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-12T23:36:20+00:00	51.8%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T00:21:26+00:00	51.8%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T01:06:33+00:00	51.8%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T01:51:43+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T02:36:53+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T03:21:58+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T04:07:08+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T04:52:19+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T05:37:24+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T06:22:32+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T07:07:37+00:00	55.4%	84.9%	46.7%	35.4%	34.0%
2026-09-13T07:52:53+00:00	55.6%	84.9%	46.7%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	55.6%	84.9%	46.7%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	55.6%	84.9%	46.7%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:23+00:00	55.6%	84.9%	46.7%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:31+00:00	55.6%	84.9%	46.7%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T11:38:39+00:00	55.6%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T12:23:45+00:00	55.6%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	55.6%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T13:53:55+00:00	49.1%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	49.1%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	49.1%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T16:09:36+00:00	49.1%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-13T16:54:43+00:00	49.1%	89.2%	51.1%	51.0%	63.3%
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00	57.5%	86.8%	53.4%	36.8%	63.3%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	57.5%	86.8%	53.4%	36.8%	63.3%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	57.5%	86.8%	59.0%	36.8%	63.3%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	57.5%	86.8%	59.0%	36.8%	63.3%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	57.5%	86.8%	59.0%	36.8%	63.3%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	57.7%	86.8%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	57.7%	86.8%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	57.7%	86.8%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	57.7%	86.8%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	57.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	57.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	57.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	57.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	56.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	56.7%	82.9%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00	56.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	56.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00	56.7%	83.0%	59.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	56.7%	83.0%	57.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00	56.7%	83.0%	57.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	56.7%	83.0%	57.0%	44.7%	50.0%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00	64.2%	83.0%	57.0%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	64.2%	83.0%	57.0%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00	64.2%	83.0%	57.0%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00	64.2%	83.0%	57.0%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.5%	55.6%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00	64.2%	77.2%	59.3%	43.7%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	77%	72.3°F	2.4°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	71.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	56%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	69.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260915-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗