— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
55¢
eps
36¢
nbm
30¢
wn2
26¢
hres
10¢
icon
9¢
aifs
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F9¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F25¢
70–71°F23¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,798 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.738 vs climatology 9.256.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape