KMSP / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Sep 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

26%

10%

Consensus

17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.55u

AIFSNO 78.5¢Risks 78.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.45u · AIFS −78.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	52.2%	47.9%	47.3%	61.2%	44.1%
2026-09-13T18:25:00+00:00	52.2%	47.9%	47.3%	61.2%	44.1%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	52.2%	47.9%	47.3%	61.2%	44.1%
2026-09-13T19:55:10+00:00	42.6%	47.9%	47.3%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	42.6%	47.9%	47.3%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-13T21:25:20+00:00	42.6%	47.9%	47.3%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	42.6%	47.9%	47.3%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-13T22:55:29+00:00	42.6%	45.8%	59.7%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	42.6%	45.8%	59.7%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-14T00:25:40+00:00	42.6%	45.8%	59.7%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	42.6%	45.8%	59.7%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-14T01:55:52+00:00	41.9%	45.8%	59.7%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	41.9%	45.8%	59.7%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	41.9%	45.8%	59.7%	49.4%	44.1%
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00	6.6%	53.6%	36.8%	36.0%	85.4%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00	6.6%	53.6%	36.8%	36.0%	85.4%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	6.6%	53.6%	36.8%	36.0%	85.4%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	6.6%	53.6%	32.3%	36.0%	85.4%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00	6.6%	53.6%	32.3%	36.0%	85.4%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00	6.6%	53.6%	32.3%	36.0%	85.4%
2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00	7.4%	53.6%	32.3%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	7.4%	53.6%	32.3%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	7.4%	53.6%	32.3%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	7.4%	53.6%	32.3%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00	7.4%	36.0%	26.1%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00	7.4%	36.0%	26.1%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00	7.4%	36.0%	26.1%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00	7.4%	36.0%	26.1%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00	6.6%	36.0%	26.1%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	6.6%	36.1%	26.1%	17.7%	8.6%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	6.6%	36.5%	26.1%	10.0%	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	70.7°F	7.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	68.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	67.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 13 · 17:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗