— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
65¢
wn2
63¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
46¢
nbm
45¢
icon
42¢
hres
40¢
rrfs
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 12,749 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.95 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape