KMSP / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

63%

46%

42%

40%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

HRESNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.35u · HRES −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T04:11:11+00:00	32.6%	77.3%	64.0%	21.3%	43.9%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	32.6%	77.3%	64.0%	21.3%	43.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	32.6%	77.3%	61.6%	21.3%	43.9%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	32.6%	77.3%	61.6%	21.3%	43.9%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	32.6%	77.3%	61.6%	21.3%	43.9%
2026-09-14T07:56:54+00:00	24.5%	77.3%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	24.5%	77.3%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	24.5%	77.3%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	24.5%	77.3%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	24.5%	78.5%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	24.5%	78.5%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00	24.5%	78.5%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	24.5%	78.5%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	39.7%	78.5%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00	39.7%	78.5%	61.6%	34.2%	44.7%
2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00	44.8%	76.8%	45.5%	33.7%	61.6%
2026-09-15T04:15:40+00:00	44.8%	76.8%	45.5%	33.7%	61.6%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	44.8%	76.8%	45.5%	33.7%	61.6%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	44.8%	76.8%	55.3%	33.7%	61.6%
2026-09-15T06:30:59+00:00	44.8%	76.8%	55.3%	33.7%	61.6%
2026-09-15T07:16:04+00:00	44.8%	76.8%	55.3%	33.7%	61.6%
2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00	49.2%	76.8%	55.3%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	49.2%	76.8%	55.3%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	49.2%	76.8%	55.3%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	49.2%	76.8%	55.3%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T11:02:06+00:00	49.2%	68.0%	53.8%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T11:47:17+00:00	49.2%	68.0%	53.8%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T12:32:22+00:00	49.2%	68.0%	53.8%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T13:17:27+00:00	49.2%	68.0%	53.8%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T14:02:37+00:00	53.2%	68.0%	53.8%	13.3%	19.4%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	53.2%	68.0%	53.8%	20.0%	19.7%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	53.2%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	19.7%
2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00	53.2%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	19.7%
2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00	53.2%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	19.7%
2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00	53.2%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	19.7%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	53.2%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	19.7%
2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00	53.2%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	19.7%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	70.6%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	49.3%
2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00	70.6%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	49.3%
2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00	70.6%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	49.3%
2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00	70.6%	69.1%	53.8%	13.4%	49.3%
2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00	70.6%	69.1%	53.8%	25.8%	49.3%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	70.6%	59.1%	55.7%	25.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	70.6%	59.1%	55.7%	25.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00	70.6%	59.1%	55.7%	25.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00	62.6%	59.1%	55.7%	25.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00	62.6%	59.1%	55.7%	25.8%	49.3%
2026-09-18T15:07:11+00:00	45.3%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	47.7%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	45.3%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	47.7%
2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00	45.3%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00	45.3%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	45.3%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00	45.3%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	48.1%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	48.1%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00	48.1%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	48.1%	66.2%	62.9%	41.4%	42.1%
2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00	48.1%	66.2%	62.9%	40.5%	42.1%
2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00	48.1%	64.8%	62.9%	40.5%	42.1%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	48.1%	64.8%	62.9%	40.5%	42.1%
2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00	48.1%	64.8%	62.9%	40.5%	42.1%
2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00	46.2%	64.8%	62.9%	40.5%	42.1%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	46.2%	64.8%	62.9%	40.5%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	65%	71.5°F	2.6°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	71.7°F	3.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	70.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗